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September 24, 2024There’s been quite a bit of polling released since we suggested, at the end of our last polling column, that an impending round of postdebate surveys could bring some clarity to the presidential race. Unfortunately, clarity is not quite what was delivered.
Let’s start with the good news from Kamala Harris’ perspective, which is that she’s been doing relatively well in national polls and seems to be solidifying a lead in the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A recent CBS News poll has her up 4 nationally, while NBC News had her up 5; she’s averaging about a 3-point lead, even when older polls are included, in the big national-poll aggregators.
Of course, national polls don’t really give us a clear picture of how “close” the race is, thanks to the Electoral College. But in the Midwest, meanwhile, a string of relatively strong state-level polls have given Harris average leads of around 2 points in each of the aforementioned states. A poll commissioned by Wisconsin Watch and released Monday—which you’d think would have a lot of credibility because, like, they’re really watching Wisconsin—puts her up a whopping 7 points in Badger territory.
